After a very difficult week for sterling, there are a number of key releases over the next few days that will determine whether sterling can bounce back or whether the downward trend will continue.
The first big data release is set to be tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which serves as one of the most important indicators of levels of inflation in the UK. As inflation can be a driving force behind the timing of interest rate increases, the outcome of these monthly data sets often has a considerable impact on sterling performance. Analysts predict that we will see figures of around 1.8%, only marginally behind the Bank of England’s target of 2%. On Wednesday we will find out how the Monetary Policy Committee voted on the most recent interest rate decision. We expect to find that the decision was unanimous and any other result could spur sharp movements in sterling’s favour. Finally, on Thursday monthly UK Retails Sales figures will be released. US Retail Sales data last week demonstrated the extent to which this data set can affect the performance a currency in the short-term and an unexpected result could have a similar impact on sterling.