The US dollar saw mostly positive outcomes at the end of last week, despite its main data piece coming in behind expectations. The dollar continued to ride on the week’s positivity, gained from its overall place at the top of the list of developed countries likely to increase interest rates. Friday’s main release from stateside was the advance growth figure, an indication of overall growth. This fell by more than anticipated, denting some of investors’ hopes of an early rise in interest rates. Also the rhetoric has increased from key US exporters such as Caterpillar and Du Pont not to increase interest rates as the strong dollar is hurting the competiveness of US exports.
This week sees activity from the get-go, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management. A quieter day tomorrow sees just the factory orders figure, before Wednesday sees the start of month labour data begin. The first of these will be the independent non-farm employment change, ever an important precursor to the official version. This is joined mid-week by the non-manufacturing PMI, before Thursday’s releases of both the trade balance figures and the unemployment claims.
The week then finishes off with arguably the most important pieces of data, with both the official non-farm figure alongside the overall unemployment rate. The former often provides movement in the market, with the latter an influential figure in the longer term prospects of the currency. As such, both figures will be important indicators of economic health in the short and long terms, and will thus be watched closely.