The euro benefitted from poor data from the UK and the USA on Friday and made gains against both. UK manufacturing and US non-farm payrolls figures were both considerably below what was expected and as a result both currencies weakened, whilst the euro itself remained relatively stable. The biggest news on the horizon this week is set to be the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and following press conference on Thursday. While no further interest rate changes are expected this month, the rhetoric at the press conference will help traders to gauge the central bank’s view on the effectiveness of measures so far and how likely further action is.
We also expect Eurozone retail sales data out on Tuesday, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.4% – any deviations might have an effect on euro performance. We also expect Italian growth data on Wednesday. Although it has indicated contraction for the better part of this year, Wednesday’s data is expected to show growth of 0.1% and improving figures would lend strength to the euro.