Fortunes were mixed for the euro at the end of last week, seeing no single, direct shift in the currency from factors within the Eurozone. The only data it had to go on was industrial production, which showed an unexpected decline in both France and Germany. With this, the euro fell against sterling, but rose over the day against a weaker US dollar. However, the continued negativity meant that the multi-nation currency was still set for a weekly decline for the fourth week in a row, the longest run since September of last year.
This week has a few releases of note that could impact on the currency’s performance, starting with a monthly economic report from Germany. Tomorrow sees the more significant data start with the German ZEW Economic statement, as the euro looks to its largest contributor for support.
Mid-week is somewhat quieter with just the Spanish unemployment rate due, ahead of a much busier Thursday. This is set to be the most significant day, as the European Central Bank (ECB) will release their monthly interest rate decision. While this is unlikely to show much change in itself, the accompanying press conference is always closely scrutinised for any clues as to its outlook for the area. This is particularly relevant thanks to the speculation over quantitative easing and the political uncertainty in Greece. Has Germany finally acquiesced and agreed that the ECB should re-energise the Eurozone economy through a programme of extra funding? If they have this will bring further pressure on the euro.
Friday then rounds off the week with a number of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures, with both manufacturing and services due from France and Germany, as well as the figures for the Eurozone as a whole.