The US dollar saw a reversal of its recent positive movements yesterday, thanks to developments in the wider geopolitical scheme. As leaders in Russia and Ukraine moved closer to a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, the demand for safer currencies such as the dollar cooled. On the data front, some worse-than-expected factory orders added to this weakening of the dollar, with little else released to counteract this negativity.
While overnight saw the release of the Beige Book, today sees the beginning of two significant days of start-of-the-month data. This begins with the independent non-farm employment change, an important precursor to tomorrow’s official figure. More labour data in the shape of the unemployment claims will follow, with this sector being key in the decision over interest rate rises.
Supporting data will also come from the trade balance and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the Institute of Supply Management, as investors continue to seek evidence of an imminent raising of the interest rates. They will also look to words from members of the US Federal Reserve which will happen overnight.