It was a mixed week for the US dollar in terms of data releases and movements. The main driver for this week’s movements was seen from sterling, due to polls on the UK’s EU Referendum
We saw both Personal Spending and Personal Income data released on Tuesday, showing positive signs, with Personal Spending increasing to a high not seen since 2009. Consumer Confidence data seen later that day failed to show the increase that was expected. The ISM manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Wednesday showed a two-month high growth in the sector. Thursday was a day for indications of the Non-Farm Employment Change data due on Friday, with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and weekly Unemployment change both posting positive figures.
With a host of data due today, we could see the US dollar finally dictate the market this week. The main release of the day is the Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to post a stable figure compared to the previous month. We can also look forward to the Average Hourly Earnings data, where a small increase is expected, as well as ISM manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is expecting positive growth. A positive day for US data releases could increase the likelihood of a potential interest rate hike later this month.
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