Currency Note

Trade deal and stimulus package agreed

By Christopher Nye December 29th, 2020

Christmas Eve saw press conferences from both the European and UK sides proclaiming the breakthrough in trade talks and agreement of a deal.

Sterling, which had been strengthening – along with the stock market, which closed on a 10-month high  – on rumours of a deal, then fell.

In the US, President Trump agreed a $900bn economic aid package to boost the economy amidst the Covid epidemic, plus a $1.4tn government spending budget.

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GBP: Sterling modifies expectations

The trade deal failed to impress the markets on Christmas Eve and sterling fell slightly from the highs that the rumours had generated.

There has been little to move the market during the Christmas break, while MPs return to parliament to vote on the deal.

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EUR: Brexit deal strengthens euro

The single currency has come close to breaking yet another multi-month record against USD this morning, exceeding 1.225, as the markets react positively to the Brexit trade deal. Against sterling, we are exactly where we were this time last week, as positivity on each side cancels each other out.

There is very little in the way of data releases this week, although we will learn about Spanish inflation rates tomorrow, which is expected to have fallen.

USD: Stimulus bill agreed

American households can look forward to receiving a cheque to the value of as much as $2,000, although most will get $600, following the agreement of a US stimulus bill.

The dollar weakened against the Euro over the course of the Christmas week, as traders were willing to sell the dollar and opt for a greater risk profile.

Later today we will see data on US house prices, with the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. A rise of 6.9% year on year is expected.

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