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After months of speculation and a fair amount of scaremongering on either side, the British public finally take to the polls today and we will soon know whether the UK will REMAIN or LEAVE the EU. For last minute currency enquiries before the results are announced, make sure you take advantage of our extended opening hours and speak to our experts today.
Big day for sterling ahead
Wednesday produced mixed results for sterling as it fell away from recent highs against both the euro and the US dollar. Markets remained relatively flat throughout the day, with investors unwilling to push sterling higher so close to the referendum. As the British public goes to the polls today to decide whether or not the UK will remain a part of the European Union, we expect to see sterling markets undergo a highly unpredictable 24 hours. With a potential 10% swing in the value of sterling against its major trade partners, investors will be keeping a close eye on expectations throughout the day in order to ensure they remain ahead of the curve.
How will the euro be affected as sentiment around the voting flows through?
The euro had a surprisingly quiet day on Wednesday, with the markets pretty flat against sterling as the referendum vote loomed. The single currency did see some volatility against the US dollar, gaining almost 1% throughout the morning but half of the gains were lost in the afternoon as the referendum draws nearer.
Today the main focus of course will be how the UK votes in the EU referendum but as there are no exit polls, investors will be in the dark until very early on Friday morning. There is a fair amount of data from Europe due to be released today: French business sentiment is forecast to fall from 104 down to 103, while Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures are out and anticipated to fall slightly by 0.1%; however, these will almost certainly be overlooked tomorrow thanks to any indication on how voters are voting on the EU referendum.
Quiet day for the US expected as the markets focus on the EU
It remained to be a quiet day for the US dollar, with just one data release of any note – existing home sales which came in as expected. US Federal Chair Yellen, who testified on the Semiannual Monetary Policy, said nothing of additional note – wait and see what the data tells us to do seemed to be the underlying theme!
We can probably expect a similar story today as the main story is of course the UK’s EU Referendum, with only weekly labour data, flash manufacturing Purchase Managers’ Indices and New Home Sales figures expected. All three are expecting to post figures similar to the previous month, with no big change expected.
Canadian dollar weakens due to crude oil fall
The Canadian dollar slipped yesterday despite strong data out in the afternoon. The retail sales, out at 1.30pm, were roughly 0.4% better than expected, and well over 1% better than last month’s stats. However, with an economy very reliant on oil, the Canadian currency did suffer from a 2% drop in crude from the 2 week high it was at yesterday. As a result of this the Canadian dollar fell 0.3% against sterling.
