Currency Note

Sterling enters GDP week with mixed results

By Sharyh Murray-Francis March 6th, 2023

The weight of last week still lingers on sterling’s shoulders. While the pound is weaker against the euro, it still maintains its monthly gains against the single currency. Against the greenback, sterling is stronger compared to this time last week however it is weaker on a monthly comparison.

Investors will have their plates full with data this week as there are lots of key economic releases scheduled in between now and Friday, which could impact currency movements.

Ambulance strikes due to take place across the country on Monday and Wednesday have been suspended. Head of operations of Unite Union, Gail Cartmail, said that, “following further assurances from the government over the weekend Unite has in good faith agreed to pause the strike action.” Cartmail also warned that if the government did not meet “further assurances” made over the weekend, “strike action will resume”.

It’s a busy week for some central banks across the globe. Later this afternoon in Germany, member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Burkhard Balz, will speak on inflation. The Bank of Canada will release its interest rate statement on Wednesday, while several members of the European Central Bank will deliver speeches on inflation.

Those watching the aussie dollar will also be listening closely to the Reserve Bank of Australia, as governor, Phillip Lowe will deliver a speech on Tuesday.  Investors will be listening keenly for any clues on interest rates during Lowe’s 9:55pm speech (UK time).

We’ve just seen the latest PMI for France, Germany and Italy. The data was mixed, with some results coming in lower than markets expected (i.e. France’s PMI which fell to 45.2 in February 2023 from a four-month high of 48.4). Up next, we’ll see the latest retail sales for France and on Tuesday we’ll see the latest Halifax house price index from the UK.

Tomorrow in Washington DC, chair of the United States Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will testify in front the Senate Banking Committee on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Any hawkish comments from Powell are likely to boost the dollar so market watchers will be listening closely.

Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your Business Trader on 020 7898 0500 to get started.

GBP: Return of the GDP

Though investors welcomed the UK and EU’s  agreement on post-Brexit trade last week, the pound begins the week with some mixed results against its rivals. As well as maintaining weekly gains against the US dollar, sterling is also up on the japanese yen and canadian dollar compared to this time last Monday.

Britain’s monthly GDP figures will be released on Friday – the last data revealed the UK avoided a technical recession, by the skin of its teeth, so pound-watchers will be keen to see what the latest economic data reveals.

GBP/USD over the past year

From To


EUR: Confident start to the week for the euro

The single currency begins the week with confidence, extending gains made last week against a handful of big rivals. This includes sterling, the canadian dollar and the japanese yen.

EUR/USD has also recovered from its near two-month low touched on February 27th, following hotter-than-expected eurozone inflation data and hawkish comments by European Central Bank officials.

USD: Market watchers poised for JOLTs data

While the US dollar has relinquished weekly gains against the pound and euro, investors will be looking to key data releases to see if they will have any impact. The spotlight will be on JOLTs data on Wednesday, as it will provide key clues on the health of America’s labour market via the number of job openings.

For more on currencies and currency risk management strategies, please get in touch with your Smart Currency Business trader on 020 7898 0500 or your Private Client trader on 020 7898 0541.