Currency Note

Economists to observe a quiet data week for UK

By Christopher Nye May 30th, 2023

This week, the Bank of England will release its July interest rate, which is due to rise by 25-basis points

Sterling enters the last week of the month stronger against the euro with monthly gains of over two per cent . Against the US dollar, it’s a different story — the pound is weaker all round with nearly two per cent lost against the US dollar. This is down to a mixed bag of factors, including a lack of key economic releases in the UK yesterday due to the May Bank Holiday.

The rest of the week will be quiet for UK data however, investors will have plenty to digest with the eurozone and US all having their fair share of market moving events scheduled in.

On Sunday, US president Joe Biden announced that a deal to raise the US debt ceiling is now ready to move to Congress. Biden said the bipartisan agreement was a “compromise”.

In the stock markets, European equities closed slightly lower on Monday with Germany’s DAX 40 ending the day 0.2 per cent lower. Meanwhile, the Italian stock, FTSE MIB, extended the previous week’s losses as investors continued to worry about higher interest rates from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB).

On the data front, the eurozone will dominate markets this week, with several economic releases scheduled in all over the region. This includes preliminary inflation rates from France, Italy and Germany tomorrow.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on Germany’s preliminary data in particular as the country represents the fourth largest economy in the world.

Also in the eurozone, ECB president, Christine Lagarde, is expected to deliver a couple speeches this week. Euro watchers will be listening closely for any hawkish comments as these could have the potential to lift the euro against its rivals.

In the USA, we can expect JOLTs, Nonfarm payrolls and much more this week. Read on for the JOLTs breakdown.

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GBP: BoE to release mortgage lending and approvals

Markets can expect mortgage lending and approvals data from the Bank of England on Thursday. In March, lending figures revealed that borrowing for mortgages in the United Kingdom declined while net mortgage approvals for house purchases in rose.

GBP/USD over the past year

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EUR: Flash inflation this Thursday

Euro watchers will be looking out for the latest eurozone consumer price inflation rate (flash) this Thursday. The previous data revealed the Euro Area’s inflation was confirmed at 7.0 per cent, which was slightly higher than the last month’s 13-month low.

However, as the rate remains over three times the ECB’s 2 per cent target, economists believe policymakers will likely continue on in their efforts to tame high inflation.


USD: All eyes on the latest JOLTs

The previous Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) data revealed the number of job openings in the United States dropped to its lowest level in over twenty-four months in March. The numbers fell by 384,000, to 9.6 million and for economists, this indicated that the US labour market may be cooling.

Many are expecting to see those numbers fall again in tomorrow afternoon’s release.

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