Currency Note

All eyes on Britain’s annual inflation rate this week

By Christopher Nye February 13th, 2023

Sterling shrugged off GDP data released on Friday which revealed Britain is not technically in a recession. The quarter-on-quarter figures stalled (at 0%) confirming that Britain just missed a recession. 

The UK’s economic calendar will be dominated by the latest claimant count change and unemployment data this week – all before annual inflation on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday – each of these with the potential to move sterling in a different direction over the course of this week.

Across the pond, investors will follow inflation in the US and several speeches from the Federal Reserve. In the eurozone, the ones to watch will be France’s unemployment rate, Spain’s inflation rate as well as speeches from the European Central Bank. Euro-watchers will be keeping a close eye on the latest unemployment change and GDP this week.

In business news, Disney has announced that it will layoff some 7,000 people in an effort to achieve £5.5bn in cost savings. The layoffs represent around 3.6% of its workforce.

On the data front, the US budget deficit was recorded smaller than markets initially expected on Friday. The latest data revealed the government budget deficit stood at $39bn in January following a $119bn surplus in the previous period.

US stock markets ended with mixed results on Friday, with the Dow Jones finishing 0.5% higher, the S&P 500 up 0.2% while the Nasdaq finished 0.6% weaker.

With a flurry of economic data releases scheduled in over the coming days, Dollar watchers will have a lot on their plate between jobless claims, retail sales and much more.

The spotlight will be on inflation data which is scheduled in for Tuesday afternoon.

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GBP: Pound stronger against handful of rivals

On Friday, sterling strengthened against the US dollar by approximately 0.22% on a weekly comparison and 1.24% against the euro. This morning GBP/EUR maintains those gains and enters the week on a stronger footing however, sterling relinquished its weekly gains against the greenback. Against the US dollar, sterling has weakened around 0.06% compared to this time last Monday.

The pound has also maintained strength against the australian dollar and chinese yuan renminbi.

GBP/USD over the past year

From To


EUR: Euro weaker against sterling and dollar

It is a different story for the euro this week which has lost weekly gains of around 0.95% against the pound. On a monthly comparison though, the single currency has strengthened against sterling, with gains of around 0.03%.

Compared to the dollar, the euro is also weaker on both a weekly and monthly footing.

USD: Dollar maintains last week’s gains

Investors have a wealth of key economic data releases to watch in the US this week — all which could impact the dollar’s performance against its competitors.

The greenback enters the week stronger against sterling compared to this time last month, as well as this time last week. Against the euro, it is a similar story as the dollar enters the week stronger.

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