Currency Note

A not-so-sterling outlook for the Autumn Statement

By Alex Bennett November 17th, 2022

Markets eagerly anticipate the Chancellor’s long-awaited autumn statement which will be delivered this morning.

Inflation was revealed to be 11.1% yesterday morning. However, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey told MPs he expects to see interest rates fall dramatically in the new year.

He said, “Once we get through this winter, because of the way the gas price effects are going to work, there should be quite a pronounced fall in inflation thereafter.”

He also added that The Bank’s forecast shows that it will drop below its target of 2%.

Latest UK figures show that food prices are surging at the fastest rate for 45 years, with the cost of everyday essentials, like eggs and milk, rising.

All eyes were on the US yesterday as the stock market experienced struggles. Department store Target plunged more than 15% after quarter three results were revealed, as did the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but not by half as much.

However, on the data front, a US Commerce Department report showed that retail sales surged 1.3% in October, the strongest increase in eight months.

Today we look to chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is due to present the Autumn Statement at 11:30am. He is expected to announce billions of pounds worth of spending cuts and tax rises.

There are several US data releases planned for this afternoon which relate to housing and building permits.

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GBP: sterling strong ahead of Autumn Statement

Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement is due at 11:30pm today. He is expected to focus on cost of living and made advance warnings that it’ll be “eye-wateringly” difficult.

GBP/USD over the past year

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EUR: A good month against the US dollar

In November, the euro traded at the highest rate we’ve seen since July. Hopefully this continues for the remainder of the month.


USD: Retail sales increase in the US

Despite falls in the stock markets, a US Commerce Department report showed that retail sales surged 1.3% in October, the strongest increase in eight months.

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