The recent autumnal conditions we have seen of late have not been encouraging, and we could be due more than the cold November rain. Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik confirmed that we could see easing as policy as early as the BoE meeting in November.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV, she commented, “If we have data prior to that which signals that stimulus is needed, we will obviously act.” It was thought that the central bank could hold rates until UK Chancellor Hammond delivers the Autumn Statement, which is set for release on 23rd November 2016.
With Brexit currently in limbo as we await the triggering of Article 50, the adjustments made to the economy and tax framework at the Autumn Statement will be key. Hopefully we will see a downpour of tax relief at this statement, as well as some rays of light.
This now makes October’s data releases crucial in terms of how they could affect sterling. If we see data recover from last month’s declining trend then this may be enough to keep the BoE from cutting rates further. However, another decline could see a rate cut triggered soon.
Looking to the data releases today we have another take on the lending and mortgage numbers. Any deviations from expectations could spell movement for sterling.