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EUR: to raise or not to raise (probably not)? QE reduction more likely…

By Michael Cooper October 26th, 2017

The main focus will be on the ECB’s meeting today where Mario Draghi and his colleagues will announce their interest rate decision. Investors are betting that they will remain on hold, not least because Draghi is notoriously dovish. However, perhaps the more fascinating aspect will be on what they do with their quantitative easing programme.

Their current €60 million commitment is set to end on 31 December 2017 and it is expected that they will reduce this from 1 January 2018. To what, nobody can be certain, although rumours are circulating that it will be between €30 and €40 million.

Going back to yesterday, the business climate index for Germany increased to 116.7 in October 2017 against an expectation of 115.2 The figure represents an all-time high and is yet another sign that the eurozone economy is recovering. While it is likely that the ECB have already made their decision, one can never tell exactly what could sway a vote. We have an exciting day ahead.