Currency Note

UK unemployment rate increases ahead of inflation tomorrow

By Roseanne Bradley April 16th, 2024

US retail sales grew 0.7% in March

The US dollar regained its strength yesterday as better-than-expected retail sales data boosted the currency. The US dollar ended Monday’s European session 0.15% higher against the euro but remains largely unchanged against the pound.

Retail sales in the US outperformed forecasts of 0.3% in March, growing instead by 0.7%, suggesting consumer spending remains strong. Eight out of the 13 spending categories posted increases, but the biggest increases were seen at non-store retailers and gasoline stations.

Also in the US, the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index remained at 51.0 in April, maintaining its highest level since July last year, following four consecutive months of increases.

The Chinese economy advanced 5.3% in quarter one of this year against a year earlier. This beat expectations of 5.0% and followed a 5.2% in the period prior.

Tech giant, Apple, lost its mantle as the world’s biggest phone seller yesterday as South Korean rival, Samsung, took back the title. Research firm IDC revealed that Apple recorded the biggest drop in iPhone sales in the first quarter of 2024, since the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Billionaire Elon Musk is to cut 14,000 jobs at Tesla as the CEO bids to make it ‘lean, innovative and hungry.’ The affected staff will account for more than 10% of the Tesla workforce.

This morning, UK unemployment figures for February increased to 4.2%, overtaking expectations of 4.0% and following 3.9% a month prior. This is the highest rate seen since August last year.

Later this morning, the ZEW index will reveal economic sentiment for Germany and the euro area in April, which are both expected to have improved slightly.

The economic docket remains light for this afternoon, with the latest on Canadian inflation and the preliminary figures for US building permits in March.

Tomorrow, the spotlight will be on UK inflation. More on that below.

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GBP: Can the Bank bring inflation down?

Tomorrow morning, we’ll find out whether the Bank of England’s monetary policy has done enough to bring inflation closer to the Bank’s 2.0% target. The rate is currently at 3.4% but economists expect the rate to drop to 3.1% tomorrow.

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EUR: Industrial output rebounds

Industrial output in the euro area rebounded by 0.8% month-over-month in February, recording a partial recovery from a revised downturn of 0.3% in January and meeting market expectations.

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USD: Dollar index soars

The dollar index rose for a fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, hovering at its highest levels in over five months as better-than-expected US retail sales data gave it a boost.

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