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As the dollar prepares for the latest US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the pound crept ahead by a hair on Tuesday. The euro dragged behind both currencies, trailing by 0.2% against the dollar and 0.25% against the pound.
There was little major economic news out of the UK on Tuesday, and perhaps that’s why it led the dollar and euro – no news is good news, especially considering recent headlines of growing government debt and threats of autumn tax rises.
However, mortgage approvals in June climbed to more than 64,000, instead of the fall analysts predicted. With tweaks to bank lending regulations and a glut of homes appearing on the market, more active buyers could see a spike of sales in the coming months.
It’s a very big week for the US economy. Jobs data, an interest rate cut decision, and the end of Trump’s tariff pause could shake the market.
Yesterday’s jobs data showed a stark 275,000 decline in open positions across the US. With more jobs data due on Friday, we may see further confirmation that businesses are hesitant to hire with so much uncertainty this year.
This afternoon, there will be fresh US GDP growth rate data. We’re starting to reach the part of the year where we can see the impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and how that’s impacted US businesses.
The big news of the day is that this afternoon, the US Federal Reserve will announce whether it plans to hold interest rates steady again. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been under immense pressure from Trump to cut rates but so far he has remained resistant.
There will be a range of GDP growth rate reports published by European countries and the Euro Area today. They’re all forecast to show a little growth, but with uncertain trade with the US throughout 2025, that growth is relatively minor.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your Business Account manager on 020 3918 7255 to get started.
GBP: Ahead by a nose
The pound was a whisker ahead of the dollar on Tuesday and led the euro by 0.25%. While there was no significant news out of the UK to cause this lead, both the EU and US are publishing significant data throughout the week, which could explain the activity.
GBP/USD past year
EUR: Weak GDP data and a disputed trade deal
The euro trailed the pound and dollar on Tuesday by more than 0.2%. European politicians have criticised negotiators of the recent US trade deal, saying the deal is giving in to US bullying. GDP data due later today is also predicted to be relatively low.
EUR/USD past year
USD: Tense week in the US with major news daily
The dollar was slightly ahead of the euro on Tuesday and only a hair behind the pound. The dollar is in a very vulnerable position this week as Trump’s tariff pause expires on August 1, today sees fresh GDP data and the Fed will announce its interest rate cut decision.
USD/GBP past year
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