Sterling struggled at the end of the week, losing ground against both the euro and the US dollar as the UK trade balance showed a larger deficit throughout the previous month than forecast. Despite falling close to a five-month low versus single currency, sterling showed a more resilient performance against the US dollar – although it did lose much of the ground it had gained on Thursday.
A bank holiday in the US today looks set to cut trading volumes throughout the day, but with three members of the Federal Reserve committee speaking throughout the day, there may well be some movement for sterling. Tuesday sees the first major data release from the UK, with confirmation of inflation figures throughout September. After slipping to 0% in August, this figure is expected to have remained flat throughout September. Wednesday’s jobs report from the UK could provide further movement for sterling, as we gain insight into state of the UK labour market. Average earnings have been steadily increasing throughout the past year, and with a further further improvement in this data forecast it could support sterling. Aside from this, attention is likely to be turned to the US, where a number of influential data releases are expected towards the end of the week.