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The pound will look to shake off a trying summer as attention shifts to year-end.
The last week of summer saw the pound range by around a cent against the euro and the US dollar but ultimately finish more or less level with where it had started Monday. After strengthening on Thursday, the US dollar gave up some ground to its European counterparts as anticipation of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve approached fever pitch.
America’s core PCE price index increased as expected by 0.3% in July, unchanged from the previous month. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment was revised down to its lowest level since May, enough to set minds racing on the interest rate front.
With August now out the way, the first days of September will likely be a crucial yardstick as we begin the long trot towards the end of the year. US data (particularly when it comes to the labour market) is a key focus of the week, although Americans won’t return to the office until tomorrow following Labor Day. Eurozone inflation data will be another important moment for the euro when that arrives on Tuesday.
July’s delayed UK retail sales data is set to be belatedly published on Friday, having been postponed a few weeks back to give the Office for National Statistics (ONS) time to doublecheck the figures. The latest average house prices from the Halifax survey are published on the same day.
Economic growth in Canada plunged in the second quarter of the year, reversing the trend of growth from the first quarter. While the 0.4% quarter-on-quarter fall was stark, there is an element of fiction to them as well. Across the world – and notably in the United States – President Trump’s tariff regime has distorted the export/import dynamic, and thereby the growth numbers.
European leaders set a deadline of today for Vladimir Putin to agree to a bilateral meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Last week, the prospect of peace dimmed and Russia launched a series of strikes deep inside Ukraine.
Finally, businesses sending parcel across the Atlantic are in for a painful start to September. An exemption that allowed packages of less than $800 in value to enter the US tariff-free has been closed. Cue chaos for the Royal Mail, Deutsche Post and European small businesses who relied on cheap shipping, which some providers have paused altogether as they sort through the confusion.
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GBP: Sliding into September
The end of August proved little different to the rest of the month for the pound. Sterling weakened by a third of a cent against the euro and needed some American data to prop it up against the US dollar. Still, the prospect of fresh data on the horizon should provide an opportunity to brush off the cobwebs.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: Inflation appears stable
There was little change month-on-month in the inflation numbers reported across Germany, Italy and France. Tuesday’s unified eurozone numbers will give us a better sense of the trend, but economists are forecasting just a slight increase, which would take the headline figure from 2% to 2.1%.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Jumbo cut dependent on jobs
Fed Governor Christopher Waller (a dovish contender to succeed Jerome Powell at the helm) warned that policymakers should not wait for the economy to worsen to cut interest rates. In comments that would no doubt please the president, Waller even floated the idea of a more substantial cut. That move would be dependent on this Thursday’s jobs data, which could have significant implications for the dollar.
EUR/USD: the past year
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