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Sunshine over the City, as the economy perked up for the start of summer
Sterling has continued at its current strong level for two working weeks now, at a three-year high against the US dollar and a six-week high against the euro.
The last 24 hours have seen some movement for GBP/EUR, with swings of around half a cent, but overall the graph looks healthy for anyone making a purchase in the eurozone – or heading off for a Bank Holiday break.
This stability is amidst a welter of interesting data, which continued this morning with GfK consumer confidence improving slightly to -20 and retail sales just announced to have shot upwards at 1.2% month-on-month.
Both were ahead of expectations and, taken with GDP’s rise last Thursday and a return to high inflation (3.5%) announced on Wednesday, probably puts paid to hopes of another interest rate cut next month.
This week we also were able to compare PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) across major economies. This survey of business leaders’ optimism and plans showed the UK’s most important industry – services – moving back into the positive at 50.2, (anything over 50 is positive, under 50 is negative) while Germany’s and indeed the entire eurozone industry fell further into the negative at 48.6 and 49.5 respectively.
American business leaders are still in bullish mood, recording level in excess of 52.1 across its industry.
Many Americans seem not so confident in their country’s prospects, however, as applications for British citizenship have hit a record high. Close to 2,000 US citizens applied in the first quarter of the year.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your Business Account manager on 020 3918 7255 to get started.
GBP: Pound to euro returns to recent highs
The pound strengthened yesterday against the euro by around 0.4%, taking it back to the point it’s been at since early April. Monday is a Bank Holiday in the UK, but in truth there is little to excite the markets this week. The next data of note is house prices from the Nationwide next Friday.
GBP/USD past year
EUR: German industrial results improve
It was a day of declines for the single currency yesterday, losing around 0.45% against both the pound and US dollar. We have just had a result for German GDP, which grew at a revised 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025. The data resumes on Tuesday with German Consumer Confidence and French inflation.
EUR/USD past year
USD: Good day for dollar
There were gains almost but not quite across the board yesterday for the US dollar – the single holdouts being sterling and the ‘loonie’, as the Canadian dollar is nicknamed. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will be speaking on Sunday, but the most notable data point of the week is GDP on Thursday.
USD/GBP past year
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