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The pound strengthened on Wednesday despite recent headaches around government spending.
Sterling enjoyed a positive Wednesday, posting daily gains over both the euro and the US dollar despite the galvanising impact the US-Japan trade deal had on American markets. Meanwhile, rumours of progress in trade talks between the European Union and the Trump administration helped lift the mood for the euro overnight.
The euro did still suffer from some early jitters ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Most economists think rates will be left unchanged, but risks are very much skewed towards a quarter-point cut that could result in further weakness for the euro.
You could forgive ECB members for being a little envious of recent trade deals. For now, they will have to make a decision with the massive question mark of trade with the United States hanging over proceedings. Inflation seems to be under control, which has only served to boost the argument for a pre-emptive cut.
The three-month average of existing home sales in the United States fell to a 10-month low of 3.93 million in June. 3% fewer single-family homes were sold compared to the last period as the median home price increased to $435,500. Sales fell at the sharpest rate (8%) in the Northeast region.
German consumers reported their lowest level of confidence since April in this morning’s GfK report. More respondents reported a preference for saving money than at any time since early 2024, while economic expectations dropped sharply and food prices climbed.
And finally, if you thought the meme stock craze was over, think again. Confectioner Krispy Kreme and camera maker GoPro are the latest to be embraced by social media and retail traders, with both companies riding a jump in value similar to GameStop earlier this decade.
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GBP: A test of mettle
Sterling regained some momentum yesterday, but the focus now shifts to what feels a key pair of reports. This morning’s manufacturing and services industry data for July – coming courtesy of S&P – should shed some light on both hiring and production in the UK economy.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: An anxious wait
Trade and interest rates were the main causes of a subdued Wednesday for the euro. The issue is there hasn’t been much clarity on either. That should soon change, although for now it’s hard to predict both the ECB’s decision and the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Weaker despite deals
It was a slightly strange sight to see the US dollar fall in the wake of what was a really significant trade deal. The dollar would soon fight back against the euro, but currency markets certainly need more than a couple of agreements to push their chips back across the Atlantic.
EUR/USD: the past year
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