Currency Note

Pound maintains strength after choppy week

By Alex Bennett July 3rd, 2023

Sterling made some recovery in the latter part of last week and is showing a positive green across the graphs against all major competitors.

This is a quietish week for UK data, but in the US it is the turn of JOLTS job openings on Thursday and  non-farm payrolls on Friday. These are among the few indicators that the US Federal Reserve will have to work with before its next interest rate decision.

Before that we have the US markets closed for Independence Day tomorrow.

On the UK and European side, this week we’ll be seeing final results for the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Final readings are less influential than the flash reading, but they will be read with interest nonetheless.

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GBP: Manufacturing PMI revised down

It has been a distinctly choppy period for the pound, with sharp rises and falls. However, GBP/EUR remains close to the 10-month high it reached in June and GBP/USD to the 15-month high.

Manufacturing PMI ahs just been revised downwards to 46.5, and will be followed by services and composite on Wednesday along with new car sales which are expected to have risen by around 13.5%.

On Friday it will be the Halifax House Price Index.

GBP/USD past year

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EUR: Manufacturing gloom weakens euro

The single currency has taken a bit of a dive this morning, weakening by up to 0.5% against most major rivals.

We’ve seen fairly disappointing manufacturing PMI data this morning, especially in Germany where a reading of 40.6 is the lowest reading since Covid-19 hit.

There is plenty of industrial data coming out this week, and it will be interesting to see the effects of the ECB’s largely successful measures to curb inflation on the rest of the economy.

USD: US waits for jobs data post 4th July break

It’s been a mixed period for the US dollar, as the markets weigh up whether the Fed’s pausing of interest rate increases last month was temporary or an end.

The markets will be quiet today and tomorrow, but there is plenty of data flying around this week, including manufacturing PMI, on jobs, and with the FOMC minutes being released on Wednesday.

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