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After strengthening after the Budget and staying strong for the rest of the week, things have started to look a little shaky for sterling – not unlike reaction to the Budget itself.
While the chancellor is defending herself against claims that she misled the public over the state of the public finances, the prime minister is reported to be coming out fighting, reminding the public of the many giveaways in the Budget, including frozen rail fares and lower energy bills. Keir Starmer, it has been briefed, will also be coming out with new plans to tackle the large welfare bill.
The dollar has been the big loser recently, with a host of economic data clearly signposting an interest rate cut when the Fed makes its decision next week. While the Fed is leaning doveish, the European Central Bank seems in no hurry to restart cutting rates, despite inflation so far looking under control.
In the UK, the markets will be continuing to monitor reaction to the Budget. After a weekend of negative headlines for the government – much of the criticism very personally directed at the chancellor – it will be all eyes on the bond markets if her position starts to look under threat.
Over the weekend the left-wing challenger to the Labour Party – now officially named as Your Party – had its first conference, with a large turnout but some leadership tensions.
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GBP: House and shop prices in the spotlight
The pound remains around 1% stronger against the US d0llar compared to this time last week and 0.25% up on the euro. We’ve got some interesting price data tomorrow including the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop inflation level and the Nationwide House Price Index.
GBP/USD past year
EUR: Inflation numbers coming out
November was reasonably kind to the single currency, despite a slip in the past week. Inflation results are continuing to come out, with only Spain’s 3% looking significantly above the 2% target. We’ll get the overall eurozone inflation result tomorrow.
GBP/EUR past year
USD: Dollar down after long weekend
Prior to the long Thanksgiving weekend the dollar was losing out to all of its major pairs, following the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon have a more doveish chair. Coming up today we have ISM Manufacturing PMI, recently languishing well below the 50 mark.
USD/GBP past year
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