July to September 2018 Currency Forecasts
In these forecasts:
- Focus on the Brexit, trade disputes and Trump
- Economic factors to look out for in the UK, US and Europe
- Currency forecasts for GBP/USD, GBP/EUR and EUR/USD
Download the latest currency forecasts
The main aim of our quarterly currency forecasts is to highlight how important currency risk management can be to businesses with foreign currency exposure.
In our years of working in the foreign exchange industry, we have learned that despite what anybody might claim, nobody knows what is going to happen to any given currency pairing from one day to the next. The sad truth is that there is no magic crystal ball to consult; we are often asked what is going to happen to the US dollar six months from now and we hold our hands up – we don’t know and neither does anyone else.
What we can tell you, is that there is almost a 22-cent difference between the minimum and maximum GBP/USD rate predictions over the next three months! Those types of swings can be extremely damaging to a business’s budget and, while it is true that nobody can be sure what is going happen, it does help show how so-called experts can have such significant differences of opinion. Put simply, forecasts are unreliable.
It might strike you as ironic that within our currency forecasts we are essentially telling you that forecasts aren’t worth the paper they are written on. However, while that is said with tongue firmly in cheek, it does help underline how dangerous forecasts can be if you make a decision based on them that turns out to be wrong.
We have provided some detailed insight into some of the political and economic events that could influence currency movements over the next three months and beyond.
In addition, you’ll find a summary of the key events over the second quarter of 2018, some of the economic factors to watch out for in the UK, Europe and US, forecast charts, major bank currency forecasts for the next 12 months, and some useful resources. Speaking of resources, why not head over to our Treasury Management White Paper page and download that?
We hope you enjoy reading it as much as we have enjoyed putting it together.