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Investors shunned risky assets on Thursday, leading to some weakness for the pound and euro.
The first full week back has provided plenty of drama and a few bumps for the pound. A cautious mood in currency markets on Thursday saw the pound and euro trade blows but finish the day more or less where they began, although both would weaken against the US dollar.
Geopolitics continued to grab the headlines and dominate discussions from London to Tokyo. In Venezuela, companies and traders scrapped to get the rights to the country’s rich reserves ahead of a scheduled meeting between President Trump and the American oil giants. Meanwhile, Greenland remained the subject of frenzied diplomacy between Europe and the United States.
In good news for landlords and pub patrons (but perhaps not for those attempting dry January), Rachel Reeves is reportedly set to announce a package to reduce the cost strain on publicans, possibly as soon as today. The chancellor has heeded fierce industry lobbying after a rise to business rates in the autumn Budget led to warnings of mass closures.
If you’ve ever struggled to get your head around the UK’s complex pension system, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) might have found the solution. In an effort to provide better value for money for investors, the regulator is considering a traffic light system that would make comparing workplace pensions schemes simpler. Those changes won’t come in until 2028 at the earliest.
And although inflation fell sharply in the most recent data report, national favourite Greggs announced it will raise the price of its sausage rolls by five pence. One of those will now set you back £1.35, as CEO Roisin Currie warned of a “very tough, challenging market”.
Yesterday provided the first real evidence that the American trade war is having its intended effect. The US trade deficit narrowed to its most slender margin since 2009, as exports increased by more than expected and imports slowed considerably.
Fresh data in this morning showed Germany’s balance of trade at a €13.1bn surplus in November.
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GBP: At the mercy of events
If the pound struggled against the US dollar, it was at least able to push back on the euro’s early advances yesterday. A quiet period has meant sterling’s direction has come from external factors, most significantly the recent drama in the diplomatic sphere.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: German factories signal growth
German factory output smashed past forecasts in November, taking the annualised rate of growth to over 10%. This will be music to the ears of the German government, which has now switched to the delivery phase of its aggressive stimulus programme. It also augurs well for the euro its economic underpinning.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Bigger jobs tests to come
The US dollar strengthened against the pound for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Despite its support from signs of life in the job market and the risk-off mood, the US economy reports impactful non-farm payroll and unemployment data this afternoon in what should be a good test of its recent levels.
EUR/USD: the past year
