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Will 2026 see a stronger dollar?
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting gave the US dollar an overnight boost in what has otherwise been a year to forget.
Sterling has strengthened by over 10 cents against the US dollar since January, the result of near-constant turmoil in American economics and politics. But the Fed’s rate setters were split over the direction of travel for monetary policy in 2026, supporting the dollar heading into the final trading sessions of the year.
With other economic news thin on the ground, focus turned to the beleaguered Chinese economy. A pair of manufacturing studies found output increased slightly in December and came in well above expert forecasts. That should reduce a little pressure on an economy struggling amid the trade war and domestic disinflation.
Warner Bros is set to reject an improved second takeover bid from Paramount, a deal personally guaranteed by Oracle’s Larry Ellison. Mr Ellison has close links to the Trump administration, and Warner Bros reportedly still view an earlier, smaller bid by Netflix as superior.
The same geopolitical concerns linger as we close out this year. Ukraine’s prime minister and Israel’s president have both made the transatlantic flight to see President Trump in recent days. Gold and other defensive assets continued to climb on Tuesday.
From all of us at Smart Currency, we wish you and your loved ones a very happy 2026. Please don’t hesitate to contract us should you have any currency requirements at any point in the year ahead.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your account manager on 020 3918 7255 to get started.
GBP: A mixed year
Sterling’s 2025 might best be categorised as up and down. Strong advances against the US dollar are slightly cancelled out by the significant falls against the euro, which emerged as the currency to beat across this year.
GBP/USD: the past year
[smartwidget id=”pound” type=”currency-chart” subtype=”full” source=”GBP” target=”USD” from=”31/12/2024″ to=”31/12/2025″][/smartwidget]
EUR: Raising a toast
It’s champagne all round for anyone with a vested interest in euros. The single currency has had a spectacular year, strengthening by 5% against the pound and ban impressive 12% against the US dollar.
GBP/EUR: the past year
[smartwidget id=”euro” type=”currency-chart” subtype=”full” source=”GBP” target=”EUR” from=”31/12/2024″ to=”31/12/2025″][/smartwidget]
USD: Fed casts doubt on rapid rate cuts
The US dollar’s recent weakness was reversed on Tuesday night as some Fed governors suggested they were minded to vote for interest rate holds for some time. While opinions were split, a hawkish bias in the opinions was enough to change some minds on Wall Street and beyond.
EUR/USD: the past year
[smartwidget id=”dollar” type=”currency-chart” subtype=”full” source=”EUR” target=”USD” from=”31/12/2024″ to=”31/12/2025″][/smartwidget]
For more on currencies and currency risk management strategies, please get in touch with your Smart Currency Business account manager on 020 7898 0500 or your Private Client Account Manager on 020 7898 0541.
