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The FOMC's minutes headlined a quiet Wednesday.
A quiet day in the world of currency saw the pound largely unchanged against both the US dollar and the euro on Wednesday. In the absence of meaningful data, focus instead shifted to the Federal Reserve and the FOMC’s release of minutes from its last meeting.
Those minutes were largely in line with what markets had been expecting. In short, most of Fed’s members remain wary of another wave of inflation setting in as policy becomes less restrictive. However, the majority still believe that making further interest rate cuts before the year is out would be a sensible decision.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves received a small boost to her autumn statement. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed another error in its data, which showed the government had actually borrowed £2bn less than estimated during this financial year.
Germany’s balance of trade widened to €17.2 billion in August, slightly more than had been expected. This was the largest trade surplus since May, despite exports falling to a seven-month low.
For those paying attention to the Conservative conference, party leader Kemi Badenoch used her keynote address yesterday to call for an end to stamp study on primary residences. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates the government receives £4.5 billion each year under current legislation.
Steve Scalise, Republican majority leader of the US House of Congress, yesterday urged Democrat colleagues to end the shutdown “madness”. In fairness, it seems there is a fair amount of blame to go around. Democrats are refusing to budge on their insistence that all residents are granted emergency medical care.
Today marks the release of our October-December Quarterly Forecast. Things are sure to be unpredictable as we move towards Christmas, with the autumn budget, debt and the US dollar and euro’s opposing fortunes grabbing attention. Don’t miss out on your copy.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your account manager on 020 3918 7255 to get started.
GBP: Any help will do
Every pound that Rachel Reeves can find down the back of the sofa will be appreciated before the autumn budget. So, it was welcome news that the ONS had given her a couple of billion pounds in extra breathing room. Sterling was still little moved by this – it will take more than that to fix the public finances, after all.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: Lagarde senses opportunity
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde once again spoke of the opportunity in front of the euro. Her comments were even more aggressive this time, suggesting now was a “unique opportunity” to end the US dollar’s dominance. The euro has strengthened by over 5% against the US dollar this year but has fallen back from its peak in summer.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Cautious but easing
A majority of Federal Reserve governors believe there is room for more easing of interest rates before the end of the year. That could prove to be another pinch point for the US dollar, which weakened against both the pound and the euro last night before regaining its footing in early morning trading.
EUR/USD: the past year
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