Currency Note

Trump’s tariff confusion holds the markets in sway… again

By Julian Benson July 9th, 2025

As confusion mounts around US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, the dollar saw gains over the pound and euro. Growing nearly 0.2% on the euro and over 0.3% on the pound, the dollar regained some of its losses from earlier in the week.

Trump’s 90-day trade tariff pause was due to expire today, sending import duties on some of its biggest trading partners soaring. In the three-month hiatus, the US managed to make only one trade agreement, that with the UK, which makes it less surprising he signed an executive order on Monday to extend the pause to August 1.

However, as well as those extensions, Trump suggested new tariffs on foreign drugs and copper imports. The news sent copper prices to a record high on Tuesday.

While the pound is somewhat shielded against US tariff confusion, thanks to its fresh trade agreement, it is not protected from market movements elsewhere in the world. As we’ve seen throughout 2025, the pound rarely wins when there is global economic confusion and instability.

Although the euro also suffered losses against the dollar on Tuesday, they were significantly less than those of the pound. That is despite the news that the EU is preparing to sign a trade deal with the US that will lock in higher tariffs than those agreed with the UK.

With few data releases scheduled for this week, besides on update on UK GDP on Friday, there is little to challenge the disruption of Trump’s tariff announcements. More countries are due to hear their trade duties fate today, making the future for the pound, euro and dollar decidedly unpredictable.

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GBP: Trade agreement does little to protect the pound

The pound lost ground against the dollar and euro on Tuesday, down 0.3% on USD and nearly 0.2% on EUR. With no major economic data releases until Friday, sterling is in sway to Trump’s ongoing tariff announcements.

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EUR: Damaging trade deal looms

The euro didn’t suffer as badly as the pound on Tuesday, but it was still down 0.15% on the dollar. However, growing noises from Brussels suggest the EU is going to sign a trade deal with the US that locks in worse terms than those received by the UK, despite its larger economic heft.

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USD: Dollar enjoys boost from tariff confusion

The dollar was up on both the pound and the euro as markets reacted to Trump’s tariff announcements. Alongside the announcement of national tariffs, now due to come into force on August 1, news of new major copper and drug levies sent traders racing to secure stocks before price increases.

USD/GBP past year

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