020 7898 0500Oh dear. The UK did not have a great day at the office yesterday, as every economic data release missed forecast. It is difficult to not be concerned about the releases, not least because of the gap between what was expected and what was actual. The trade deficit had been expected to narrow to £2.5 billion, but it actually widened to £5.28 billion and is the largest trade deficit since September 2016.
Construction output shrank by 3.3%, when a fall of 1.8% had been predicted by the markets; industrial production decline by 0.8% when 0.2% growth had been expected; and UK manufacturing output had been expected to grow by 0.3%, but it actually fell by 1.4%. It is the biggest monthly fall for more than five years and raises serious questions about the strength of the UK economy.
Today we will see the unemployment rate for April and the average earnings figures for the same month. Wages have grown over the last couple of months so it will be interesting to see if the trend continues, especially in light of the inflation rate which is due to be released tomorrow.
