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EUR: will the ECB raise interest rates on Thursday?

By Michael Cooper October 23rd, 2017

The euro had a surprisingly poor end to the week as it weakened against sterling and the US dollar. Admittedly, the fall against the pound came as a result of some extremely positive borrowing figures from the UK, as well as reports of progress in Brexit talks. However, the situation between Spain and Catalonia has not helped, as the Spanish Prime Minister vowed to impose a rule of law on Catalonia.

Later today we have the consumer confidence flash report which is expected to dip a little. Tomorrow sees the release of the German Markit manufacturing PMI flash report and business climate report. However, the most exciting day is Thursday, when the ECB convene to decide whether on interest rates and more importantly their programme of quantitative easing which, in theory, runs out at the end of this year. Expectations are for it to be cut to €40 billion form the current €60 billion per month but the ECB is not doing what the markets expect.

Following the decision, ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues will give a press conference where they will explain their decisions including the announcement on their quantitative easing programme. It will be interesting to see what how markets react as there is opportunity for rapid and significant movement for the euro either way.