Yesterday was a quiet day ahead of a big one for economic data. The euro dropped slightly from its 14-month high ahead of today’s headline event – the highly anticipated ECB meeting, which signals the last major policy decision before the summer break.
Comments from ECB members of late have been optimistic to the point that the market is expecting an announcement on tapering QE. This a significant part of the reason the single currency has been strengthening, though the respective weaknesses of sterling and the US dollar contributed too.
The main focus of the meeting will be a decision on rates, but the rhetoric and tone of ECB President Draghi’s press conference will be studied intently. If he continues to be optimistic about the eurozone, we could see a strengthening in the euro, but if he strikes a more dovish tone it could pull back from its recent highs.