EUR: latest polls had put Fillon in with a chance – has this now all changed after last night?

The euro began yesterday morning by hitting its highest level since the end of March against the US dollar, gaining 0.3% after an opinion poll suggested Emmanuel Macron will win the forthcoming French election. This was before the terrible events in Paris last night which saw those gains given back.

However, perhaps the biggest surprise in the run-up to the election is the suggestion that Francois Fillon is in with a renewed chance of victory. Following the “Penelope Affair”, it was generally felt he was out of the race but a recent surge in the polls means he could still get through to the second round this Sunday. If that proves true – and it is at the expense of Marine Le Pen – then the restoration of faith in centrist politics could trigger a boost to the euro.

However with the deaths in the centre of Paris yesterday evening we may find that the anti-establishment parties benefit as the voters may want France to have greater control over its borders.