We will see an abundance of data releases in the Eurozone this week. The most important event, however, will be the Italian referendum next Sunday which will drive volatility for the euro. A yes (or Si) vote is what Italian leader Renzi has campaigned for, and he has hinted that he will resign if he loses the vote on governmental reform. Therefore, a no vote (which has been maintaining a slight lead in the polls as this note was written) would lead to uncertainty given the parlous state of a number of Italian Banks and, therefore, investors moving funds away from Europe, potentially causing euro weakness.
Italian European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to speak on Monday and Wednesday – expect his speeches to focus on his country’s referendum.
Monday will also see lower impact-data (money supply numbers and private loan figures) and Tuesday will follow with Spanish and German price data.
Germany will release unemployment and retail sales figures on Wednesday. Thursday’s German Manufacturing PMI (following last week’s flash figures) will be closely followed by investors, and France, Italy, Spain and the bloc will follow suit. The Eurozone will also release unemployment numbers.
In Italy their GDP will be released on Thursday, which will mark the last data from Italy before Sunday’s referendum.
The working week will finish on a quieter note, with Friday seeing only Spanish unemployment and European producer price information.