Ten years on from Brexit: what’s changed for UK businesses?

Britain is ten years removed from the Brexit vote. The world has change a lot in that time...

23 June marks the ten-year anniversary of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.

A rancorous referendum campaign split the country into yes’s and no’s, Remainers and Brexiters. As was clear at the team, the decision would have major implications for businesses with international operations, subsidiaries, clients or suppliers.

Much has changed in the decade since then. But while the political debate has (largely) moved on, the practical impact is still very much part of day-to-day decision making for many.

Since 2016, companies with international exposure have had to adapt to a different trading environment. Supplier relationships have changed along with import and export processes. Currency markets have remained sensitive to economic and political events.

This article examples how business has changed since 2016 and treasury strategy along with it.

A decade of change

For businesses, it’s tempting to look back at that sun-drenched summer’s day and consider just how much the political and economic landscape has shifted. If you count David Cameron, five prime ministers have come and gone since then, several of whom will forever be linked with the referendum. It took several years of high-stakes wrangling to negotiate an exit, as the Conservative party fought an internal war between those advocating a “hard”, no-deal Brexit, and those calling for something softer.

The UK’s trading relationship with the EU changed formally when the Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into effect on 1 January 2021. The Office for Budget Responsibility continues to assume that the post-Brexit trading relationship will reduce long-run productivity by 4% compared with remaining in the EU, largely because of increased barriers to trade.

That does not mean every business has been affected in the same way. Some have found new suppliers. Some have moved into new markets. Some have adjusted pricing, stock levels or customer terms. Others have carried on trading successfully with European partners, but with additional administration, longer timelines or different cost assumptions.

The common theme is change. It is a trite yet true observation to say few internationally exposed businesses operate in exactly the same way as they did in 2016.

Different red tape

For many businesses, the biggest change has not been a single event, but a series of practical adjustments. Customs paperwork, regulatory checks, product standards, payment timings and supplier terms can all affect how cash moves through a business.

Even a small delay can matter. If goods take longer to arrive, stock must be financed for longer. If customers take longer to pay, working capital comes under pressure. If suppliers change their terms, payment schedules may become harder to manage.

These operational issues can quickly become financial issues. They affect cashflow forecasting, pricing, purchasing and margin control.

For companies that buy or sell in euros, dollars or other currencies, the impact can be greater still. A change in payment timing can mean exposure to a different exchange rate. A change in supplier terms can increase the amount of currency that needs to be bought at short notice. A change in pricing can leave less room to absorb currency movement.

Currency risk and the wider picture

Brexit is only one part of the last decade. The list of shocks, crises and disruptions reads like a summary of  businesses have also dealt with Covid-19, supply-chain disruption, inflation, higher interest rates, energy price shocks and a major war in Europe.

The thing that makes managing currency risk challenging is that it rarely appears in isolation. It often arrives alongside other pressures, making it next to impossible to predict where

A business may have agreed a price with a customer, only to see supplier costs rise before payment is received. It may have budgeted for a large overseas purchase, only for the pound to move before the invoice is due. It may have expanded into a new market without fully assessing how exchange rate movement could affect margin.

In each case, the issue is not only the exchange rate itself. It is the lack of certainty.

What’s changed in the boardroom?

Finance directors and CFOs are now expected to give the business greater visibility over future costs and cashflow. That can be difficult when overseas payments are handled on a case-by-case basis.

Many businesses still buy currency when an invoice comes due. That approach may feel simple, but it can leave margins exposed. If exchange rates move against the business, there may be little time to respond. The cost may have to be absorbed, passed on to the customer or offset elsewhere.

A more structured approach can help. This does not mean trying to predict the market. It means understanding the business’s exposure, setting clear internal rules and planning around known commitments.

For example, a finance team may want to know:

• Which currencies the business is exposed to
• When payments or receipts are expected
• What exchange rate has been assumed in budgets
• How much margin would be affected by a 5% market movement
• Which payments need certainty and which can remain flexible
• Who is responsible for making currency decisions

These are practical questions. They are also board-level questions, because they affect pricing, profit and cash flow.

The pound remains sensitive to events

Sterling has moved through periods of sharp volatility over the past decade. It has reacted to political developments, economic data, interest-rate expectations and changes in global risk appetite.

For a business, this matters because exchange rates can move for reasons outside its control. A company may have strong sales, reliable suppliers and a healthy order book, yet still see margins affected by a weaker pound or a stronger overseas currency.

This is why currency planning should not sit at the edge of the finance function. It should form part of budgeting, forecasting and commercial decision-making.

As the chart below shows, the pound has ranged by more than half a cent against the US dollar since the referendum. While there have been a couple of sustained phases of sterling recovery, the broad trend of the past ten years has been a gradual weakening of the pound against its biggest rivals, particularly the US dollar.

GBP/USD: the past decade            

A tentative detente

The UK’s relationship with the EU has shown signs of exiting the permafrost. In May 2025, the UK and EU held their first summit since the UK left the bloc and agreed a new strategic partnership, including commitments to strengthen cooperation across defence and trade.

The UK government also said the package could reduce red tape and add nearly £9 billion to the UK economy by 2040.

For businesses, any further change could bring opportunities as well as uncertainty. Easier trade in some areas may support growth. New arrangements may alter supply chains, payment timings or customer demand. Wider global trade developments may also encourage businesses to look beyond Europe.

The key point is that change is not over. Finance teams need to be prepared for a trading environment that continues to move.

Five questions to ask now

Ten years on from the referendum, this is a useful moment for businesses to review their exposure.

Finance leaders may want to ask:

1. Has our overseas supplier base changed since 2016?
2. Do we now have more euro, dollar or other currency exposure?
3. Are our budget rates still realistic?
4. Do we understand the margin impact of exchange rate movement?
5. Do we have a clear treasury policy, or are decisions still made payment by payment?

If the answer to any of these questions is unclear, it may be time to review your approach.

How Smart Currency Business can help

Smart Currency Business works with companies that make or receive international payments. We help businesses understand their currency exposure, plan future payments and manage risk in a way that supports their wider commercial goals.

A structured treasury approach can help protect margins, improve cash-flow visibility and give finance teams greater confidence when planning ahead.

If your business has changed since 2016, your currency strategy may need to change too. Speak to Smart Currency Business to review your exposure and plan for the year ahead.