020 7898 0500The US dollar hasn’t let up as we draw nearer to the presidential election. Polls were showing Clinton significantly ahead, and future markets were leaning towards a stronger dollar in the coming months, aided by the likely interest rate hike on December 16. But over the weekend the lead in the polls for Clinton evaporated as the FBI “re-opened” the wound that is her non-authorised email account. Who now knows who will win next week’s Presidential vote!
The much-anticipated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure failed to create much movement. The US GDP figure for the third quarter of 2016 was released on Friday afternoon and came in at 2.9% against the expected 2.6%. Exports were significantly higher as personal consumption dropped off. The dollar dropped off slightly due to the concern the personal consumption drop-off which showed that US consumer spending was slowing. This is a concern as it is one of the main drivers of the US economy.
This week will be a key week for the dollar as the big monthly non farms jobs data is released on Friday. The currency markets will be watching this figure closely due to last month’s surprising figures. We also expect the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement on Wednesday, which will give more clues to the potential rate hike that is expected in December. The likelihood is beginning to be priced into currency markets. Finally, the two main presidential candidates will be continuing their campaigns this week as the US election draws closer.
